Time magazine reports that the “superforecasters” working for a spinoff of Good Judgement Open are astonishingly good at making highly accurate predictions about complex global events. They nailed the approval of the Brexit vote in 2020, Saudi Arabia’s decision to partially take its national gas company public in 2019, and the status of Russia’s food embargo against some European countries also in 2019. They’ve even been on target with epidemiological predictions about the rate of COVID-19 cases. (Sadly, they haven’t yet turned their talents to predicting how long it will take me to get a DMV appointment.)
Superforecasters don’t depend on the highly skilled reading of yak entrails. They rely on research, hard data, news reports, and gut feel. Perhaps more importantly, they’re “actively open-minded and curious. They’re in ‘perpetual beta’ mode,” constantly testing their ideas when presented with new information or perspectives, rather than doubling down on their previous opinions. As the article explains,
their accuracy is a result of using specific techniques to structure their thinking…. [They] also tend to share certain personality traits, including humility, reflectiveness and comfort with numbers. These characteristics might mean that they’re better at putting their ego aside, and are willing to change their minds when challenged with new data or ideas.
You may not be ready to buy the coffee mug and join the superforecasters club. But you can employ the same techniques and mindset to help you manage your organization better. Solving problems is really just a different version of forecasting the future—the only difference is that the superforecasters make passive predictions, whereas you use your forecasts (super or otherwise) to determine what you’ll do to improve the current state. As I wrote (warning: shameless pitch ahead) in my new book, The Conclusion Trap, we have a nasty tendency to leap to solutions before we truly understand the problem. We prefer the warm comfort of a simple, fast answer to the cold, hard swim in the sea of knowledge. And leaving aside my book (although why would you want to?), these techniques are valuable for anyone with responsibility. As Time puts it,
Officials calling the shots, like mayors and governors, might be skeptical of the entire forecasting enterprise. But even if they ignore the superforecasters’ predictions, they could learn something from their methods. A willingness to change your mind when presented with new information, contend with your biases, challenge one another’s ideas, and break down problems into specific questions are all desirable qualities in people who make big, important decisions.
Give it a try. It’s less smelly than butchering a yak.